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Балансы международных расчетов





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"_____"____________1998 .





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- 1998





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(1. 1992 - 1996

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997*

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1996 84,9 89,1 90,4 46,6 62,3 67,4

1997 84,8 87,4 ... 52,5 67,6 ...

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1

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I.

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5.

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4.

5.

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B.

1.

2.

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C.

1.

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2.2.

II.

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1.

1.1.

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2. / ,

B.

1.

1.1.

1.2.

2.

2.1.

2.2.

3.

3.1.

3.2.

4.

4.1.

4.2.

4.3.

4.4.

4.5.

: Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.p.43-48

2

1993-1997 .. (
)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I
II III IV I II III

2913 2528 2237 -1448 1275 1246 2440 831 5908 3227
-391 763 3762 1679 2006 4153 4060 15 -1045

1780 2167 3491 -609 127 2039 3236 1881 4908
4119 1735 1968 3260 3348 3832 6284 4879 2375 1618

( ) 1797 2375 4229 1147 1461 4444 5000 4207 5947
6148 5073 4302 4641 4925 5066 8429 5880 3536 3099

8697 11075 11853 12086 13029 17026 17790 18823 18855
20071 20246 22382 20872 21944 21920 25732 21161 20236 21455

-5200 -7500 -5800 -8459 -11682 -12249 -12597 -14656
-12908 -13923 -15173 -18080 -16231 -17019 -16854 -17303 -15281 -16700
-18356

. -1700 -1200 -1824 -2480 114 -333 -193 40











-17 -208 -738 -1756 -1334 -2405 -1764 -2326 -1039
-2029 -3338 -2334 -1381 -1577 -1234 -2145 -1001 -1161 -1481









2021 2657 2623 2758 2899 3251 4073 2693 2765 3317 4091









-3060 -4686 -5961 -5092 -4280 -4828 -5307 -4838 -3766 -4478 -5572

( ) 1032 -429 -2264 -1262
1110 -767 -1045 -1084 915 -880 -2068 -1300 483 -1601 -1878 -2293 -852
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2247 438 315 243 2588 631 449 625 2618 733 481 502 2440 655 610









15 17 40 95 8 23 35 37 50 63 61





2247 438 315 243 2573 614 409 530 2610 710 446 465 2390 592 549





-1137 -1205 -1360 -1327 -1673 -1511 -2517 -1925 -2135 -2334 -2359 -2795
-3292 -2936 -3223





-50 -50 -50 -50 -26 -87 -188 -168 -128 -133 -132 -115 -129 -158 -190





-1087 -1155 -1310 -1277 -1647 -1424 -2329 -1757 -2007 -2201 -2227 -2680
-3163 -2778 -3033

101 790 1010 423 38 -26 249 34 84 -12 -59 95 19 -67
52 160 33 -79 -50









183 163 147 271 135 105 143 315 109 42 68









-99 -175 -206 -176 -116 -172 -91 -155 -76 -121 -118





















-2689 289 -2696
1204 -2274 -1272 -732 -3278 -2388 -3640 5026 -8662 -2793 -797 -1445
-2566 -3466 -917 2174

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -22 -73 -173 -80 -219 -66 -80
-99 -29 -188 -12









-22 -73 -173 -80 -219 -66 -80 -99 -29 -188 -12

-2689 289 -2696 1204 -2274 -1272 -732 -3278 -2366 -3567
5199 -8582 -2574 -731 -1365 -2467 -3437 -729 2186

287 88 179 128 56 8 -312 75 116 163 563 870 404 21
690 992 348 1337 1531









-68 -124 -70 -43 -32 -216 -66 -57 -507 -623 -677









184 287 633 913 436 237 756 1049 855 1960 2208

49 12 63 -59 -103 -338 -216 52 -1438 -57 -1 62
1343 750 310 5275 5719 7996 1828









-1496 -26 -23 20 140 -73 3 -243 187 -42 -305









58 -32 23 42 1203 823 307 5518 5532 8038 2133

-2493 302 -2738 1636 -2075 132 -3200 -3715 -1094
2526 5555 -7271 -1887 -4135 -3559 -8698 -8221 -2058 -2740

-2545 -364 -4100 -3252 -3480 -1303 -3582 -5711 -2624 1035 5794
-656 -5790 -9118 -5979 -12246 -1507 -9195 -10558

-380 -741 -1958 -2621 -1137 -619 -2203
-2288 -1383 2345 -341 -632 -96 -3072 -2544 -2803 -2671 -1203 -3511

105 -6 -384 -219 1428 749 790 -1768 1269
109 1187 1805 1178 -1940 1232 -1469 1543 -649 -1052









-228 2 8039 227 -1626 -1800 -1700 -4375 -2458 -2379 -1236

() -110 -267 -633 -139
-2439 -1214 -1098 -957 1817 3748 1408 1585 2424 3123 2267 1685 4050 2325
364

-1684 -230 -120 199



-4156 -3772 -1398 -1228 -4612 -2374 -1295 -1195 1829 -2736 -1004






-550 -550 -550 -550 284 -741 -1683 -1677 -1082 -1100 -1129 -914 -2100
-2257 -2103














-1936 -1812 -2861 -3163 -2100 -2257 -2103

-476 880 -1005 -472 -782 331 -521 -148 -227 -656 -1418
-736 -40 -143 51 -12 400 -39 87

52 666 1362 4888 1405 1435 382 1996 1530 1491 -239 -6615 3903
4983 2420 3548 -6714 7137 7818





186 221 229 226 -82 50 161 59 -87 -39 -80 -37 -84 69 6

-1617 -795 -796 2140 63 71 234 517 275 148
272 1748 131 -12 721 708 -7503 495 1017









395 -433 -1278 -6774 75 -434 -571 131 405 442 120

1669 1461 2158 2748 1156 1143 -81
1253 842 1603 703 -2501 4178 3669 2382 3220 962 5791 5982

1122 863 -68 1478 -2223 -3511 -2917 -3302 -2267
-627 -2966 -6700 853 1580 -1427 1311 -1240 4434 4108

. -306 -329 -161 -183 -2451
-3729 -2880 -3566 -2703 -616 -1423 -572 179 -571 -2156 -573 -785 800 406

22 45 65 82 847 662 545 638 614 2131 2318 3227 4150
1573 1547 1407 1254 2311 1862

..



345 345 345 345 0 1690 1650 2144 1393 1013 677 672 646 701 677

-328 -374 -226 -265 -3298 -4391 -3425 -4204
-3317 -2747 -3741 -3799 -3971 -2144 -3703 -1980 -2039 -1511 -1456

1428 1192 93 1661 228 218 -37 264 143 371 -15
179 308 229 246 957 335 485 1664









293 -382 -1528 -6307 366 1922 483 927 -790 3149 2038





3379 4654 2836 4555 2210 1670 2610 5586 2600 1470 3190 1180 1320 350
840

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3379 4654 2836 4555 2210 1670 2610 5586 2600 1470 3190 1180 1320 350
840

547 598 2226 1270



899 560 1059 -1387 725 619 619 729 882 1007 1034










22 126 -34 -72















78 -3 -63 925 -394 1799 -32 -474 -494 340 693

-1202 -1669 -250 246 1265 -1371 3791 239 -96 -5936
-1105 -3249 -2034 3431 1390 54 -1331 -8034 1616





18 577 -121 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0









1 -230 93 14 -141 115 134 2 1 -8 2









0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0





1247 -1948 3912 180 -97 -5706 -1198 -3263 -1893 3316 1256 52 -1332
-8026 1614

670 1556 50 -747 -1417 297 -795 71 146
-263 187 1006 -400 -798 -196 -90 48 30 -49

-224 -2817 459 244 999 26 -1708 2447 -3520 413
-4635 7899 -969 -882 -561 -1587 -594 902 -1129

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

: " ", 1994-1998 ..

3

1994-1997 (
)

1994 1995 1996 1997

I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I
II III

1275 1246 2440 831 5908 3227 -391 763 3762 1679
2006 4153 4060 15 -1045

127 2039 3236 1881 4908 4119 1735 1968 3260
3348 3832 6284 4879 2375 1618

( ) 1461 4444 5000 4207 5947 6148 5073 4302 4641
4925 5066 8429 5880 3536 3099

13029 17026 17790 18823 18855 20071 20246 22382 20872
21944 21920 25732 21161 20236 21455

-11682 -12249 -12597 -14656 -12908 -13923 -15173
-18080 -16231 -17019 -16854 -17303 -15281 -16700 -18356

-1334 -2405 -1764 -2326 -1039 -2029 -3338 -2334
-1381 -1577 -1234 -2145 -1001 -1161 -1481

0 0 0 0 2021 2657 2623 2758 2899 3251 4073
2693 2765 3317 4091

0 0 0 0 -3060 -4686 -5961 -5092 -4280 -4828
-5307 -4838 -3766 -4478 -5572

( ) 1110 -767 -1045 -1084
915 -880 -2068 -1300 483 -1601 -1878 -2293 -852 -2281 -2613

: 1160 -717 -995 -1034 926 -810 -1920 -1227
603 -1491 -1781 -2215 -773 -2186 -2484

2247 438 315 243 2573 614 409 530 2610
710 446 465 2390 592 549

-1087 -1155 -1310 -1277 -1647 -1424 -2329
-1757 -2007 -2201 -2227 -2680 -3163 -2778 -3033

38 -26 249 34 84 -12 -59 95 19 -67 52 160 33 -79 -50

0 0 0 0 183 163 147 271 135 105 143 315 109 42 68

0 0 0 0 -99 -175 -206 -176 -116 -172 -91 -155 -76 -121
-118

















-6364 -5255 -6815
-9425 -6161 -1802 -42 -13845 -7834 -7092 -7995 -5846 -5639 3419 -3129

0 0 0 0 -22 -73 -173 -80 -219 -66 -80 -99 -29
-188 -12

0 0 0 0 -22 -73 -173 -80 -219 -66 -80 -99 -29
-188 -12

-6364 -5255 -6815 -9425 -6139 -1729 131 -13765 -7615
-7026 -7915 -5747 -5610 3607 -3117

0 0 0 0 -1322 106 563 932 1747 771
1000 6267 6067 9333 3359

0 0 0 0 -1564 -150 -93 -23 108 -289 -63 -300 -320 -665 -982

0 0 0 0 242 256 656 955 1639 1060 1063 6567 6387 9998 4341

-6364 -5255 -6815 -9425 -4817 -1835 -432 -14697
-9362 -7797 -8915 -12014 -11677 -5726 -6476

-3480 -1303 -3582 -5711 -2624 1035 5794 -656 -5790 -9118 -5979
-12246 -1507 -9195 -10558

291 130 -1413 -4056 -114 2454
846 1173 1082 -5012 -1312 -4272 -1128 -1852 -4563

0 0 0 0 -228 2 8039 227 -1626 -1800 -1700
-4375 -2458 -2379 -1236

() -2439 -1214 -1098
-957 1817 3748 1408 1585 2424 3123 2267 1685 4050 2325 364

0 0 0 0 -4156 -3772 -1398 -1228 -4612
-2374 -1295 -1195 1829 -2736 -1004

-1332 -219 -1071 -698 57 -1397 -3101 -2413 -3058 -3055
-3939 -4089 -3800 -4553 -4119

-2884 -3952 -3233 -3714 -2193 -2870 -6226 -14041 -3572 1321
-2936 232 -10170 3469 4082

186 221 229 226 193 198 433
1807 44 -51 641 671 -7587 564 1023

0 0 0 0 395 -433 -1278 -6774 75 -434 -571
131 405 442 120

-3070 -4173 -3462 -3940 -2881 -2758 -5284 -9927
-3297 7 -2974 -96 -2494 2123 2246

0 0 0 0 100 123 -97 853 -394 1799 -32 -474 -494 340
693

















-1417 297 -795 71 146 -263 187 1006 -400
-798 -196 -90 48 30 -49

999 26 -1708 2447 -3520 413 -4635 7899 -969
-882 -561 -1587 -594 902 -1129

















-5507 -3686 -6878 -6076 -3627 1575
-4881 -4177 -5441 -7093 -6746 -3370 -2125 4366 -5352

-22147















5491 3945 7172 5432 3627 -1575 4882 4177 5441 7093 6746
3370 2125 -4366 5352

1265 -1371 3791 239 -96 -5936 -1105 -3249 -2034 3431
1390 54 -1331 -8034 1616

3724 4999 3181 4900 3109 3920 5319 6343
4718 3102 4486 2581 2848 2058 2551

.
345 345 345 345 0 1690 1650 2144 1393 1013 677 672 646 701 677

- 345 345 345 345 0 1690 1650 2144 1393
1013 677 672 646 701 677

0 0 0 0 899 560 1059 -1387 725 619 619 729 882
1007 1034

3379
4654 2836 4555 2210 1670 2610 5586 2600 1470 3190 1180 1320 350 840

502 317 200 293 614 441 668 1083 2757 560 870 735 608
1610 1185

.
( ) 502 317 200 293 614 441 668 1083 2757 560
870 735 608 1610 1185

: " ", 1994-1998 ..



" " / . ..
.:, 1996. 440 .

., . , -, ., 1997. - 685 .

., . " :
",-.,-1997. - 699 .

.. : . ., -
.:,1992.-520 .

" - ."/ .
....: , 1994.592 .

. "". . . .: - , 1994. 736

" ", / ..,
., -, 1997. 590 .

., ., ., , , ., 1993, 670 .

. " : ,
"// .-1998.-17. - .8

., ., " "//
-.-1998.-8(260).-.23-27

// "
" 29(192) 20 1997 , . 35

"
": - ,
5/ " "; -.:1997.-16 .

1993 //
, 6, 19 1994 .

1994 // , 15, 21
1995 .

1995 //
, 31-32, 1 1995 .

1995 //
, 46, 10 1995 .

1995 //
, 7, 20 1996 .

1995 // , 23, 28
1996 .

1996 //
, 30, 4 1996 .

1996 //
, 62, 14 1996 .

1996 //
, 12, 3 1997 .

1996 // , 29, 20
1997 .

1997 //
, 52, 12 1997 .

- 1997 //
19, 25 1998 .

Balance of Payments Manual , International Monetary Fund, Washington,
1993

Krugman P.R., Obstfield M. International Economics. Theory and Policy,
HarperCollins Publishers Inc, 1991

Romer D. Advanced Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill, London, 1996

Stern, R.M. "The Balance of Payments: Theory and Economic
Policy".-London, 1973

Taylor M. "The Balance of Payments: New Perspective on Open-Economy
Macroeconomics", Gower House, UK, 1990

"The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments"/ A collection of
research papers of the Staff of the IMF.- Washington, 1977

Thirlwall, A.P. "Balance of Payments Theory and the United Kingdom
Experience", The MacMillan Press Ltd., London, 1986

Boon P., Sinegubko B., Chubarova V. "Financal Resilience Underestimated:
Fiscal and Balance of Payments Outlook for 1998". - London, Brunswick
Warburg, March 26, 1998.

"Direction of Trade Statistics", International Monetary Fund,
Washington, 1993-1997.

International Financial Statistics Yearbook, International Monetary
Fund, 1996

.: .. ,
, ., 1992.



,
" ". ,

,

.

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.6

// "
" 29(192) 20 1997

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.20

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.20

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.20, paragraph 58

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.26, paragraph 92

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.8

Balance of Payments Manual, IMF, 1993, p.37

.: , /
.., ., -, 1997, .156

.: Stern, R.M. "The Balance of Payments: Theory and Economic
Policy".-London, 1973. p.34

,


. . total currency flow

.: Taylor M. "The Balance of Payments: New Perspective on
Open-Economy Macroeconomics", Gower House, UK, 1990, p. 10

.: Thirlwall, A.P. "Balance of Payments Theory and the United
Kingdom Experience", The MacMillan Press Ltd., London, 1986 p.18



.: Taylor M. "The Balance of Payments: New Perspective on
Open-Economy Macroeconomics", p. 18

.:Taylor M."The Balance of Payments: New Perspective on Open-Economy
Macroeconomics", p.15

(B) B=pX-M,
, ,
, , .
, dB/dp < 0, ..

. ,
:

.

((1).
, (1 > 0.
, =,

,

.. (dB/dp<0),
((1 + (2) > 1.

Taylor M. "The Balance of Payments: New Perspective on
Open-Economy Macroeconomics"

. Thirlwall, A.P. "Balance of Payments Theory and
the United Kingdom Experience", The MacMillan Press Ltd., London, 1986

, (Y) Y=C+I+X-M,
- , I , , ,
,
() =-=Y-. ,
Y-C (S),
=-=S-I.

(
.



.

,

.
- ,
,
.

.: "The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments"/ A collection
of research papers of the Staff of the IMF.- Washington, 1977

.
, .
,

.
, , ,
,
.
,
.

, ,
, , -,
, -,
, -,
,
(.. ). ,
()
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(p):



.: Stern, R.M. "The Balance of Payments: Theory and
Economic Policy".-London, 1973.

.: ., . " :
",-.,-1997

.: ., . , -, ., 1997 .143

.: 1993 //
, 6, 19 1994 .

.: 1994 // , 15,
21 1995 .

.: 1995 // , 23,
28 1996 .

.: 1995 // , 23,
28 1996 , .6

.: 1995 // , 23,
28 1996 , .10

.: 1996 // , 29,
20 1997 .

.: 1996 // ,29,20
1997 , . 12

.: 1996 // ,29,20
1997 , .21

.: - 1997 //
19, 25 1998 .

. Boon P., Sinegubko B., Chubarova V. "Financal Resilience
Underestimated: Fiscal and Balance of Payments Outlook for 1998". -
London, Brunswick Warburg, March 26, 1998.

. Boon P., Sinegubko B., Chubarova V. "Financal Resilience
Underestimated: Fiscal and Balance of Payments Outlook for 1998", p. 4.

. "
": -
, 5, 1997 ., . 2

.: "
": -
, 5, 1997 ., . 5

.: "
": -
, 5, 1997 ., . 7

.: ., ., " "//
-.-1998.-8(260).-.23-27.

.: . " : ,
"// .-1998.-17.-.8

.: 1996 // , 29,
20 1997

.: "
": -
, 5, 1997 ., . 7-10


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