: ..,-401
: ..
Ņ..3
1.
1.1 : 4
1.2 ⅅ. 7
2.
2.1 ⅅ.14
2.2 ⅅ..17
2.3 酅20
2.4 腅.21
2.5 酅..22
2.6 ⅅ.23
Ņ.24
25
, . , , .
. , , , , , , . .
: .
, , . , .
1997 . 1996 . ࠠ , . , . .
, .
-4-
1. .
1.1. : .
: , , . . .
()- , , , , , .
()- - . . , , - .
:
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2. - , : , , , .
3. - ; , , , .. , - .
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-5-
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: , , .
6. , 堠
. ,
,
.
7. ,
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8. -
( , , ,
.).
9. .
10. .
11. ( ).
12.
( ) .
: . , ( ). , .
-6-
60%, 40% . , : , , , , .
, . , ( , , .) ( , .). ( ) , - , . , . , , , , .
:
:
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- 11-20 ;
- 20 .
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-7-
:
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-8-
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|
. . . , % | . . . , % | . . . , % | . . . , % | |||
|
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.. |
1.2 .
|
. % | . % | . . % | . % |
0 100 | ||||
. :
= + (*) / 12 * ( 12- ) / 12, (1)
- ;
- () ;
- ;
;
- ;
. . :
= ( *1+2+3+.i-1+ *i ) / ( n 1 ) (2)
n - ( , ..)
i - i- ;
( ):
= (+) / 2 (3)
;
- .
-10-
. :
: = . / .; (4)
: =./ . ; (5)
: .= ./ ., (6)
. ,
. - ,
ᠠ - ,
. - ,
𠠠 - .( . - ).
.
, :
= / . (7).
, : , : = . / Ϡ (8),
, : = . / . (9) .
:
..= 1- 0* I, (10)
1 ,0 - ,
I - .
, , , . , , .
.
-11-
. , , : ; : = * @ (11).
:
1= (1-0) * @0
2 = (@1 - @0 ) * 1
.
, . :
= ( * . * ) / . , (12)
ʠ - ;
. - ;
- 1 -.
, (), () (). () (), :
= ( * * * * ) / ( * ) = ( * * * ) / . (13)
. : , , , , .
, . : , : . = . / . (14) , : .= . / . (15). , : J = . * (16).
-12-
, :
= * * * * (17).
, .
( ). : .= . / Р (18),
( , - ). , .
, , ( ) : . = . / . (19) , . . , , : : . = . / . (20), . , .
, . , , 1 2 ( ) : . = / S (20), , S- . , , 1 2 . , , , .
, . . , , ,
-13-
, , .
, : =
* * * * (21), =
, -
(), , , - .
. : : = *
* * * (22),
- , -
.
, : : c = * *
* * (23).
,
: = * * *
*
(24).
,
: = * * * *
(25).
:
+
Ϡ
=
= + 砠 𠠠 (26),
堠
, ,-
,
,
, ,
.
, . , , . . ( ). ( )
( ) . ,
-14-
, . . .
2. .
2.1 .
. . : . . 1996 ( ) 1997 - .
. 2.1 .
. 2.1 , .
, . . | % | |
.. .. . |
8345 2005 445 9367 1328 689 311 22490 | 33.7 8.1 1.8 37.9 5.4 2.8 1.2 90.9 |
.. .. |
1987 238 2225 | 8.1 1.0 9.1 |
. | 24715 | 100 |
-15-
2.1 24715 . . 90.9% ( 22490 . .) , 9.1% ( 2225 . . ). ࠠ (9367 +1328+ 689+ 311) / 22490 * 100% = 52.0 % 11695 . ., -48.0% 10795 . . .
. 1997 2.2.
2.2. .
|
. . . , % | . . . , % | . . . , % | . . . , % | |||
- |
22490 90.9 | 5150 90.4 | 1810 61.1 | 25830 94.1 | |||
. |
2225 9.1 | 550 9.6 | 1150 38.9 | 1625 5.9 | |||
.. : | 24715 100 11695 47.3 | 5700 100 3610 70.1 | 2960 100 1015 56.1 | 27455 100 14290 52.0 |
2.2 , (1997.) . 2740 . . 11.1 %, 3340 . . 14.9% ( 1997 ). 3.2% ( ). 47.3% 52.0% ( +4.7%), . 4,5,6
-16-
, : : = 5150. / 25830 = 0.2 , =1810./ 22490 = 0,08, .= (5150-1810)./ 22490 = 0,15. , .
, 2.3.
2.3 ..
|
. . . % | . .. . % | . . % | . . % |
22490 90.9 | 2225 9.1 | 11695 47.3 | 24715 100 | |
25830 94.1 | 1625 5.9 | 14290 52.0 | 27455 100 | |
. | +3340 +3.2 | -600 -3.2 | +2595 +4.7 | +2740 +11.1 |
2.3 +2740 . ., +11.1%. , +2595 . . , +4.7%. ( ):
1996= 1996 / 1996 *100= 11695 / 24715 = 47.3%
1 = 1996 / 1997 = 11695 / 27455* 100% = 42.596%
= 42.596-47.3= -4.704%
2 = 1997 / 1997 = 14290 / 27455* 100% = 52.0%
= 52.0-42.596= +9.404%
, +4.7% (-4.704% + 9.404%).
, . 3 :
1996=( 20120+22490)/2=21305 . . a1996=(11305+11695)/2= 11500 . .
1997=(22490+25830)/2= 24160 . . a1997=(11695+14290)/2= 12992,5 . .
-17-
2.2 .
- . . 2.4.
. 2.4. .
1996 | 1997 | ||
(), . . | 159787.5 | 177576 | 17788.5 |
, . .: () () () | 21305 11500 383.3 | 24160 12992,5 406.0 | +2855 +1492.5 +22.7 |
.. () | 0.5397 | 0.5377 | -0.002 |
, .: () () | 7.5 13.89 | 7.35 13.66 | -0.15 -0.23 |
() | 30 | 32 | +2 |
(), . | 112.5 | 112.32 | -0.18 |
: () () () | 3750 480 250 | 3510 459 245 | -240 -21 -5 |
() | 1.92 | 1.87 | -0.05 |
(), . | 7.8 | 7.6 | -0.2 |
1 - (), . | 1420.3 | 1580.9 | +160.9 |
, , : ; : = * .
:
=( 1997-1996)*1996=
( 0.5377-0.5397)*13.89 = - 0.02778 .
-18-
=( 1997-1996)*1997=
( 13.66 13.89)*0.5377 = - 0.12367 .
: -0.15 .
. 13 :
1996
* 1996 * 1996 * 1996 250 * 1.92 * 7.8 * 1420.3
1996 = 1996 = 383300 = 13.89
1996 1997:
1996 * 1996
* 1996 * 1996 250 * 1.92 * 7.8 * 1420.3
1 = 1997 = 406000 = 13.09
0.8 . (13.09- 13.89 ).
( ) :
1997 * 1996
* 1996 * 1996 245 * 1.92 * 7.8 * 1420.3
2 = 1997 = 406000 = 12.83
0.26 . (12.83-13.09) ( 5 ).
:
1997 * 1997
* 1996 * 1996 245 * 1.87 * 7.8 * 1420.3
3 = 1997 = 406000 = 12.50
0.33 . ( 12.50 12.83).
:
1997 * 1997
* 1997 * 1996 245 * 1.87 * 7.6 * 1420.3
4 = 1997 = 406000 = 12.18
, 0.32 . (12.18-12.50).
, :
1997 * 1997
* 1997 * 1997 245 * 1.87 * 7.6 * 1580.9
4 = 1997 = 406000 = 13.66
-19-
1.48 . ( 13.66-12.18).
, , . :
-0.8 * 0.5377 = -0.43016
⠠ -0.26 * 0.5377 = -0.1398
蠠 -0.33 * 0.5377 =-0.1774
⠠ -0.32 * 0.5377 =-0.1720
+1.48 * 0.5377 = +0.7957
-0.23 -0.123
2.5 .
.2.5
|
, . . | . . |
1. 2. 3. |
2855* 7.5 = + 21412.5 - 0.02778 * 24160 = -671.2 - 0.12367 * 24160 = -2987.8 -0.15 + 17788.5 -0.8 * 0.5377 = -0.43016*24160 = - 10392.6 -0.26 * 0.5377 = -0.1398 *24160 = - 3377.5 -0.33 * 0.5377 =-0.1774*24160 = - 4285.9 -0.32 * 0.5377 =-0.1720*24160 = -4155.5 +1.48 * 0.5377 = +0.7957*24160 = +19224.7 -0.23 -2987.8 | |
3.2.1 3.2.2. 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.2.5 |
-20-
2.3 .
. , .
2.6 . .
. 2.6
(.) 1 - (), . | 32 250 8 2 1600 | 32 245 7.6 1.87 1580.9 | 0 -5 -0.4 -0.13 -19.1 |
(14) : .= . / .= (32 * 245 * 7.6 * 1.87 ) / ( 32 * 250 * 8 * 2 ) = 112320 / 128000 =0.87. (15) : .= . / = ( 1580.9 / 1600 = 0.9875. , . = 0.87 * 0.9875 = 0.86.
2.6 .
. , 0.4 . .
-21-
2.4 .
. ( ) . (1), (2) (3) , . 2.7 1996 1997 .
2.7. .
1996 | 1997 | ||
: .. . : 充. 充. | 112 25 87 60 27 | 120 26 94 65 29 | +8 +1 +7 +5 +2 |
2.7 8 . 5 ( , 1997 ).
2.7 2.3 18,19,20 :
1996: 1= 24715 . / 112 = 220.6 1997: 1= 27455 . / 120 = 228.8
2= 22490 . / 87 = 258.5 2= 25830 . / 94 = 274.7
3= 11695 . / 60 = 194.9 3= 14290 . / 65 = 219.8
( ). 8.2 . , 16.2 . , , 24.9 . .
-22-
2.5 .
, . ( , ), ( , ) . , . 12 . 2.8 .
2.8.
1996 | 1997 | ||
(2) : (2) (2) | 12000 10500 8500 2000 | 13500 12000 8500 3000 | +1500 +1000 0 +1000 |
+1500 2 . 1997 ( 1000 2 ) 500 2 ( ). 2.8 2.4 1 2 :
1996 : . = 159787.5 ./ 12000 = 13.31 1997 : . = 177576 . / 13500 = 13.15
, 1 2 0.16 . 13.15 . 1997 13.31 . 1996 .
1 2 .
( ) 1 2 . = 159787.5 ./ 8500 = 18.8 . / 2 . = 177576 . / 8500 = 20.9 . / 2.
1 2 1.9 ., .
-23-
, 1 2 , , .
2.6. .
. , . 11819 . 6.5 % .
:
-24-
.
, . , , .
, , , , , , . . , , - , . . .
. 1996 ( ) 1997 ( ). . , 1996 7.5 , 1997 7.35. . , .
. 11819 . .
: ,
, , , , .
-25-
.
1. ., ., : . .: , 1997
2. .. .-.: . , 1996
3. . . / . .. - .: , 1997
4. .. .: , 1997
5. . / . .. .: ,1996
6. .., .. .- .: , 1995
7. .., .. , , . .: , , 1996
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