Исследования зависимости производства ликероводочных изделий от экономических показателей
:
-
7
3
. .
. .
1996
.
- (Y) :
1- (X1);
2 - (X2);
3- (X3);
4- (X4);
5- (X5).
,
.
.
- (Y) ,
(N=21)
138.1, 209.2, Y
71.1. 12.2126%
Y (<33%). (176.5905)
17.5814 ( ), (-1.1554)
(-0.1873) , Y
.
Y ,
-0.981% .
(X1) ,
(N=21) 248.1,
356.3, X1 108.2.
10.6046% X1 (<33%).
(313.5953)
33.2555 ( ), (-0.9713)
(-0.5517) , X1
.
X1 , ..
1.0741% 0.0254 (%
). 16 ,
16 21 .
(X2) ,
(N=21) 20812,
33177, X2
12365. 13.9157%
X2 (<33%). (26846.0952)
3735.8119 ( ), (-1.1144)
(0.324) , X2
.
X2 , ..
0.9409%.
(X3) ,
(N=21) 92.4,
106.1, X3
13.7. 3.8059%
X3 (<33%). (99.5857)
3.7902 ( ), (5.6717)
(1.4085) , X3
.
X3 , ..
0.0821% . 9
.
(X4) ,
(N=21) 130.1,
147.4, X4 17.3.
3.6811% X4 (<33%).
(138.7) 5.1057
( ), (-1.2575) (0.1499)
, X4
.
X4 , ..
0.6262% . 4
.
(X5) ,
(N=21) 133.5,
208.5, X5 75.
11.4207% X5 (<33%).
(175.9905)
20.0993 ( ), (-0.7625)
(-0.1934) , X5
.
X5 , ..
-1.1457% . 13 ,
21 .
- .
Y 5 (0.9834), 4 (-0.5315) -
- 3 ( -0.4266), 2 (-0.1890) 1
(0.1176). 3, 4,5.
,
.
1.
(
t-) , :
x1 x2 x3 x4
x2 x1
x1
x4 x4
x2
5 4, ..
Y-X4 (-0.5315) ,
Y-X1 (0.1170) Y-X3 (-0.4266) Y-2(-0.1890).
2.
.
, :
^2= N-1-1/6(2*n+5)*ln|R|
80.469 ,
.
:
W=(Cii-1)-(N-n)/(n-1)
ii - .
Wii Wii f-
W11 3.622 0.0139
W22 1.93 0.12648
W33 6.18 0.00081
W44 2.181 0.08999
W55 6.225 0.00077
, 2, 4
3 5 .
3 5,
2 3, ..
- (Y)
(X2) (X3).
, 5 1
Y 1.0552
, ,
Y 96.71% ( R-).
.
Y (=3.909). Y
, ,
^2 (^2=10.04)
.
.
:
i i i i i
1 9174.74 12 5598.67 123 5589.96 1234 538.735 12345 185.547
2 8969.93 13 7329.06 124 545.654 1235 217.694
3 7608.97 14 2226.17 125 217.86 1245 185.690
4 6674.29 15 256.857 134 1176.13 1345 236.652
5 305.611 23 7607.95 135 240.845 2345 224.784
24 256.856 145 256.53
25 227.26 234 3506.0
34 5628.28 235 224.949
35 275.868 245 226.924
45 266.522 345 236.662
25 125.
R2
25 0.9756 3.3709
125 0.9766 3.3005
, 25 .
- (Y) 2-
(X2), 5- (X5) 97.66%.
.
,
.
f--
f--
f--
f--
f--
1 3.1719 1 0.5331 1 0.7335
2 4.1314 2 1.7014 2 3.0429 2 1.8365
3 0.0115 3 0.0121
4 2.5988
4 8.6594
5 28.553 5 394.844 5 419.872
5 23.6498
F 4.4100 F 4.4100 F 4.4100 F 4.4100 F 4.4100
5. Y
96.71%, (X5)
- (Y).
.
. 1901 ,
.
:
Zij=(Xij-Xi)Si ;
Si=[1/(n-1)*(Xij-Xi)^2]^(1/2) ;
Zij ;
Si .
Wj,
:
Wj=V1Z1+V2Z2+...+VrZr
Vj , :
(Zz-KI)*Vj=0
Zz ;
I | Zz-KI|=0 .
i
. 1,2,4
, 3 ,
5. (X1),
(X2), (X4), (X5)
, .
Y 87.43% (
R ).
.
.
Gt D E- K KH KH1 V V Vs Vl
2.5273 1.552086 0.843786 0.13734 0.015911 0.0164
0.1373 0.008 0.009699 169.4348
6.633742 4.78329 2.587049 0.360434
0.041764 0.0432 0.3604 0.002 0.076127 124.1527
11.42036 7.739524 3.974608 0.62061 0.071899
0.0744 0.6206 0.006 0.169182 168.1134
8.637442 3.711905 2.035688 0.46938 0.054378
0.0563 0.4693 0.018 0.074788 157.9697
16.61707 11.85095 6.213912 0.903012 0.104615 0.1083
0.903 0.012 0.169182 263.5587
,
, .. Gt=2.5273. E-
, -
( ), -
, 1 - , V -
, V -
, Vs -
, Vl -
.
.
:
1- - (Y)
;
2 - (5)
(X2) ;
3 -
- , 97,66%
- (Y);
4 - ,
;
5 -
,
- (Y);
6 - (X1), (3)
(4)
- (Y);
7 -
.